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Metz

The Coming Decentralization of Manufacturing

The
move towards decentralization is on. Large scale centralized power
is inevitably doomed but they will not go down without a fight. As James Dale Davison and Lord William Rees-Moog presciently wrote 15
years ago:Governments will violate human rights, censor the free flow of
information, sabotage useful technologies, and worse. It is a fact of
human nature that radical change of any kind is almost always seen as a
dramatic turn for the worse. (read more)

danielravennest

Something we know from computer networks is hierarchical and centralized networks are slower than mesh (many to many) decentralized networks, because the data has less hops to get to get to it's destination. When you apply the idea to human networks, you can see why bureaucracies are inefficient. Everything has to go up the chain of command for a decision, and then back down the structure to be acted on. In a decentralized situation like a social network, wiki, or forum, information can often go directly from the person who has it, to the person who needs it. With many decision makers rather than one at the top, things will simply happen faster.

Corporations and governments are usually structured as hierarchies. They only work well when the efficiencies of scale outweigh the inefficiencies of structure. Modern computers and data networks have dramatically lowered the cost for distributed human social networks, and shifts the balance of which kind of structure is most efficient overall.

The article you linked to talks about 3D printers, but I view those devices as useful, but not world-changing on their own. We already have lots of good ways to make parts of various materials. Where I think the world changing impact will come from is linking up different machines specialized for different jobs. Linking them physically, by having ways to move materials from one machine to another, and robots to assemble the parts. Also linking them informationally, by having the plans for a finished product distributed online, and within your own local network of machines as instruction. If you happen to only have 5 of the 7 needed machines to finish a project, a smart manufacturing program would locate the nearest sources for the missing two, order the needed parts built, and they would ship them or tell you where to pick them up. Then you place them on your storage shelves and the robot will grab them when it needs them. Not quite a magic Star Trek replicator, but close enough for practical purposes. The automated coordination across many smaller builders I think will really have an impact.

UtopianPragmatist

i couldn't agree more that this is the first major game changer of the twenty-first century but it won't be the only one, another emerging and truly wonderful tech is AI; now i know we've been promised this for an age and a half but beside the 'sorry dave' element it's really starting to become a feasibility. As an example NASA used what can only be described as a 'artificial pseudo-intelligence' in the form of an evolutionary algorithm which 'grew' various antenna designs until it located an optimum compared to a set of pre-chosen variables; this saved countless human hours and resulted in a fairly novel triangle shaped device which may well have out performed what would have otherwise been created. This is earliest days, circuit board design programs still have the occasional problems tidying up a nest - however it's already understood how we'd go about making a program to reliably generate a circuit which results in certain actions according to certain triggers, how the components could be sourced automatically and a fully automated BOM printed (and by printed i guess that could even mean 3d printed).

I don't know if anyone's familiar with the Blender Game Engine, it's very simple you hook up triggers to logic gates and then to actuators - it's allowing non-programmers to control events within the game environment in a flexible and simple fashion; as a design tool a similar thing could allow a home user to hook a thermometer to a 'if below 0' logic gate then into a 'run heater' function then compile it into a working schematic maybe even with reference to his person inventory. This information could even then be ported into a CAD program with structural constraints inbuilt, the user manipulates models of the physical items and simply positions them in the preferred order and location; the computer then 'compiles' this into a structurally stable and 'finished' model applying to the users set constraints - this can then be tweaked, emailed to a fabricator (in hongkong) or printed at home.

When the major slog of design work has become automated (as much of it already has) then every good idea someone has can be tested, every little winkle in someones eye can be realized. Parametric models (many on Thingyverse now) let you set variables such as 'number of hooks' and the code works out the spacing and measurements - the better this sort of tool becomes the simpler and more flexible not just home fabrication but home invention becomes.

anyway here's to hoping for a century of AI, Robots and Replicators rather than constantly sweltering temperatures, ever more obvious climate destruction and the continued encroach of corporate-feudalism's police state. I'm looking forward to seeing the huge waste of space and effort which is the manufacturing and distribution systems evaporate into fallow ground and clear roads :)

Metz

I could see a darknet market develop along the lines of the Daniel Suarez book "Freedom TM" and "Daemon"

He described a parallel economy that arose after the central gov system inflated the currency away. In the first book Daemon, he described several things that have now come to pass. I will list them as bullet points to keep the thoughts organized.

1 The book describes a digital currency known as Darknet Credits. We have Bitcoin

2 The book describes 3D printing and towns developed along the lines of what they call a 'Holon" basically a self sustaining community that is governed as a meritocracy and voluntary collective at the same time. People are judged by gaining or losing reputation points. We dont have that yet, but the FeF model could be reimaged into a similar town.

3 People communicate via wireless darkent networks which we have TOR and the Onion network in real life

4 People are connected to this darknet via glasses that display data. We just had a article in Wired Magazine demonstrating a prototype of that very thing.

5 the darknet is administered partially by a AI gaming engine. We dont have that but AI is coming

6 Holons are communities that are self sustaining and created by new members on a trade/credit system. self replicating machines like 3D printers arrive in cargo containers that are used to build the community, then sent back into the system. As a community grows, it gains skills and things to trade with other Holon factions, such as legal defense faction, horticulture faction, defense faction. Must in the way that the video game the darknet was based on works. Kind of a real life Second Life. Also as the community grows, it "unlocks" the ability to borrow items from the system. We are not there yet.

Anyways the books cover too much detail for a short forum post, so I will close by saying 'Read the Book"

Metz

BTW, I am thinking that the corporate system may be flawed as it exists today. Human nature allows people; who I will just say nicely, have sociopath tendencies to rise to the top.

Sociopaths are attracted to other sociopaths, yet due to the other well documented flaws in this personality type; contribute to the inefficiencies of the corporate hierarchy by making business decisions based on social skills, instead of logic and merit.

Collectivist models such as the Marxist model also do not work as they basically view the individual as a part in the machine of the State. We have seen that system fail many times, ending in collapsed economies, war, and genocide.

So where do we go from here?

The present American system is flawed because the idea of merit, creativity, effort, and logic has been given a lower value in society than where they should be.

Matt_Maier

The future of the human race will best be served by maintaining a diverse array of economic/political systems. Resiliency is a direct result of diversity. If we ever get to the point where we can't find someone doing something we disagree with...that's the time to worry.

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