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Priorities: does it make sense to try to make e.g. polyethylene

  • I was looking into bioplastics earlier today to try to track down patents. But honestly I couldn't really get into it; polyethylene is quite cheap and the economic value that would be generated by open sourcing this seems small. Of course it and other plastics are something that need to be developed sooner or later. But at the same time, it seems like in order to propel OSE and FeF with maximum speed the juicy stuff that gives a return on investment seems like the first thing to start with yeah? Then the profit produced feeds back into the system speeding it up, and reducing the chance funding runs out too.

    And this applies to other commodity stuff to sometimes I think; scrap steel is 60 cents a kilogram. That sounds awfully hard to beat. Making useful objects from said steel might make more sense, amiright?

    But Aluminum from clay is currently a stated priority for OSE,(which I previously agreed with, but I change my mind now):

    Let's look at aluminum: aluminum is $2.7 per kg as a commodity [http://metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/al/al.asp]. at 6.2 kWH per pound to produce (13.65 kWh a kg) that equates to 0.19 cents per kWh electric input[http://www.rocksandminerals.com/aluminum/process.htm].

    Biomass is at least $100 per ton, 17 mj per kg for biomass, convert it at 22% to electricity and so you get 1.038 kWh per 10 cents. You net 9 cents per Kg pf biomass burned. And biomass can be worth more than using it to produce aluminum - some people are selling biomass pellets at $400 a ton!

    Pure sun at $800 kilowatt peak productivity and no maintenance and if it is efficient at low light levels you get 4.73 kWh per day in columbia missouri out of your $800 system that's 89 cents a day.. hey actually that's not so bad is it. Return on investment in a couple years, the (obvious problem being that you are mining your own clay though there is a lot to go around this is neither a long term plan or a get rich quick scheme). In many cases it may be better to sell the electricity back to the grid. Plus that ignores the rest of the production process. (the obvious question here is how do they manage to make aluminum that cheaply; they put the plants right near a hydroelectric dam)

    But it's not anywhere near making CEB presses at a profit of $2000 each in 10 hours of work. Or hydraulic pistons at a profit of $250 each. It seems like this is likely to apply to other commodities too - although I know an organic chemist who comments on the extreme cheapness of producing a lot of chemicals and the exorbitant profits of companies like dow so I would certainly not rule out the production of all commodities. But pure aluminum and polyethylene seem like very low profit margin products in this context ( $1.7 per kg http://www.icis.com/V2/chemicals/9076151/polyethylene-high-density/pricing.html).

    At the same time something just occurred to me: I guess this is what farms do, sell what are really quite cheap commodities (sugar is $0.5 per kg!), but still... essentially this would be the farm that grew polyethylene. An admittedly interesting notion to empower farmers, but not game changing?

    What's your take on this?
     
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  • I personally agree that at this time these sorts of commodities won't be as profitable as the development of products, but the development of the process will probably take a while to iron out. It would be helpful to have different categories of products, similar to the Eisenhower method of prioritizing: urgent and simple, urgent and difficult, not urgent but simple, not urgent and not simple. Then we could adjust development timeliness to ensure the most effective utilization of resources.
     
  • I identified "Provide plastic products" and "provide chemical products" on the functional block diagram page: http://openfarmtech.org/wiki/Functional_Block_Diagram_F.3_Global_Village_Equipment
    But so far there has not really been any work done within OSE in this area, it's been mostly focused on on the metal hardware. An example of a chemical product would be the ingredients for a Vanadium Redox battery (a particularly efficient large battery for storing wind and solar power). You need hydrochloric and sulfuric acid as electrolytes in the battery, so where does that come from?

    For any given item like that, you need to look at does it make sense to make it yourself, or to buy it from outside? If you can just take care of three areas (food, housing, and transportation) you cover 73.6% of total needs as measured by the Consumer Price Index ( http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2010.pdf ), so everything else is in that remaining 26.4%. At some point there is diminishing returns trying to cover the last few percent - like you are not going to be making computer processor chips locally.

    So looking at Gregor's numbers above, the questions are how much do we need of the given metal or plastic, and how much supporting equipment would it take to make it, and does that make sense?
     
  • @Daniel

    I would be interested in collaborating with you on the development of those block diagrams. I have some ideas I would like to bounce off of you that may restructure the diagrams somewhat. I'm putting up a diagram to be food for thought here: http://openfarmtech.org/wiki/File:CommunityOrganization.png
     

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