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Adversarial approach to product development - we could try this on the solar project
  • I let some comments about this sit for a day in the most recent thread relating to the solar project, but maybe people have stopped reading that, and it is a different subject really:

       To help resolve the lack of documentation problem, and to achieve something closer to the type of open source collaboration that is achieved on software projects, and therefore get the benefits thereof, maybe we could experiment with an adversary system sort of arrangement.  There are 6 months until prototype II of the solar concentrator will begin so here is a good opportunity.


    1. On the solar concentrator page, there would be a section "Potential designs for prototype II"

    in that there would be several subsections such as:


    ==Engine-focussed==

    ===Organic rankine based===

    ===Steam based===

    ===Stirling based==

    ==Collector-focussed design==

    ===Trough collector===

    ===Array of flat heliostatic mirrors===



    In the subsections there can be links to main article pages.  On those main pages there could be a separate sections for for-arguments and against- arguments but I don't know if there is any point in that. Both can be intermingled fine and that might be more realistic.

    (of course they cannot be designed in complete isolation, but
    people working on the steam can look at what is happening on the
    collectors and say "well the cost estimate is in for the extruded
    trough collector one and the tables on the page show that the 100x conc
    ratio one with half insulated absorber tube, for which the efficiency
    vs. temp table shows that when combined with the linear steam engine,
    when combining the cost estimates we did last week, looks like it
    should produce electricity at (shows estimating method) maybe $X per
    watt materials cost and Z person-hours of assembly time with tool
    capital cost of W - not bad!")



    ( I wouldn't add all the ones you can think of all at once, let
    people add them as they spin out of the rest of the design processes as
    interesting options)


    We have to divide the design approaches into groups somehow, and engines and collectors is reasonably natural.



    2. The community votes on which they think should be chosen. This
    is only an information gathering tool which is used by the leadership
    and the community, there is no risk of poor decisions due to bias by a
    mob of redditors that shows up or something because the leadership
    would notice and prevent such issues from affecting their judgement.


     It could be done through the wiki too, with the vote of each
    contributor correlated with their activity on the wiki and maybe team
    culturing info, then different statistics could be produced: results of
    the voting within only the people that added to the pages at some point
    (and therefore are more likely to know the issues), are engineers (from
    team culturing info), the population size-corrected opinions of 
    different groups (to compensate for biassing of the results due to an
    influx of certain enthusiasts who might not have really read the pages
    carefully) etc.  I think the wiki supports polling.  The voter
    correllation data could be scraped with a perl script then dumped into
    a database from which stats can be extracted if no existing solution is
    available.



    The community can explore the design-space, and in detail.  By
    design space I mean the problem space that includes all possible
    designs.   



    There are some rules that must be followed for this to work:

    1. Design criteria and guidelines specific to this particular tool
    should be available at the top of the page, and in reasonably compact
    form.  These are the all and the ONLY criteria that decisionmakers will
    care about in their decision making, and they should not change much
    after the word go, if possible.  The compactness need conflicts with
    the latter to some degree of course, but the best compromise that can
    be found.  



    2. At the time the design is chosen by the dictator, all and  ONLY
    the information on the page and maybe 2 links deep or something (so
    references can be verified) may be considered, except in the cases
    where information cannot be shared in it's entirety publicly due to
    copyright (in which case the argument such documents contribute needs
    to be made as available as possible to the other contributors by
    quoting sections etc. and the docs should be available to the maximum
    legal extent to those who ask for them).


    This makes sure contributors can have confidence that their time
    spent contributing accomplishes something, which will encourage
    contributions.   They know they see the entire body of existing work so
    they know what does and does not need still to be done, etc.




    There are at least 2 things that need to be done for this approach or some variant of it to be implemented:

     1. Get the existing design documents up so that we can pick up where the design was left off.

    2. Leadership needs to send the right signal that the decision to use the approach has been ratified, if it is.



    This could accomplish many things in one go:

    1.  It integrates documentation directly into the design process.

    2. It allows ready collaboration within the entire community.

    3.  It gives contributors confidence their time spent contributing
    is well spent.  In the hardware design communities there is not
    currently the same culture that exists as there is in the software
    community.  We need all the help we can get bringing in contributors.

    4.  It gets the critics off the backs of the people in the
    building and on the project post-design.  The most ardent and useful
    critics are the ones that are critisizing because they want to see the
    project be done well.   If someone says you are doing it wrong, tell
    them how the design process goes, and when they see that they have in
    fact an effective route to correct the design deficiencies of the
    current prototype that they see, with such improvements being
    incorporated in to the next prototype if it does turn out to make sense
    to do so, hopefully they will go make their argument well, in detail
    and preferrably quantitatively, on the wiki.  Therefore being more
    useful and easily integrated into decisionmaking.  



    How it could fail:




     
  • 14 Comments sorted by
  • 1. The page becomes to big to be reviewed, or the signal to noise ratio

    becomes too low, with good design gettign buried.  I don't think this

    will be a problem because the wiki page can be summarized as we go

    along:  Bob says he's concerned about the possibility of the mirrors in

    the current multiple-flat-moving-mirror collector design seizing in

    winter due to ice, say.  Mary gets back with some info about how ice

    accumulation is reckoned for in bridges and comes up with an estimate

    for how much ice could accumulate in one day or night (whichever is

    most relevant) in the worst night in 3 years typically in various

    weather zones, and an estimate of how this would effect operation.  

    Kerry gets back and improves the estimate and shows the force of the

    chosen actuator has to be at least this much for the solar fire

    design.  Someone else suggests applying grease to reduce that torque,

    someone else says maybe anti-ice paint would work and explains how anti

    ice paint works.  Yet another person points out that the actuators can

    be designed to have enough torque according to kerry's estimate but the

    cables would break or wear out fast, but that if the hinge mechanism is

    modified in this easy way, which is no harder to build, the problem can

    be obviated.







    Then Jim comes along and summarizes the whole exchange into "We would

    need actuators with probably about this much force (include estimate) 

    to deal with the estimate of the 3 year worst case for ice buildup in

    the current design, and this produces (this problem for this reason,

    show estimates) .  Designing the hinges in this way and the torque goes

    down to (show esitmate): (show solution) which is enough to solve the

    problems without complicating the design and without the maintenance

    that greaseing stuff needs."



    The change history is stored, so  when someone points out that grease

    actually lasta many years without reapplication and the process

    continues (hey you can't know everything and that's progress) and

    changes it again totally,  then someone else notices that estimate

    doesn't work in if there are conditions where the snow wipes the grease

    off (whatever this is just an example) they can go to the edit history

    and the work of mary bob an kerry is still there and can be used.







    2.  The design exploration is not advanced enough to make a good

    decision.  Well then there just isn't enough, or skilled or

    enthusiastic enough contributors, which is a problem no matter how you

    work it.   Or it is not harnessing enthusiasm well enough, but it's

    certainly much better than the current approach.







    Ideally, you could even actually produce a good finished design with

    this process, because there is hardly an argument better than a really

    good, known to be good (with all realistic cost estimates that look

    good, real world examples increasing confidence in practicality of the

    systems etc.), but at some point the adversary part may mean that if

    one design really gets ahead the competition will give up and the

    winners just call it a day and go, but some people may stick around and

    finish it, since we know that is the plan anyway, and we have

    confidence that the design, since it is superior, will be chosen and

    therefore the time to finish it is well spent.  







    Note that the Dictator, when it comes time to pick which design to

    finalize, does not do much design work.  They don't finalize the

    esitmates or whatever, they would have done that yesterday, instead, if

    the schedule is to be kept.  Well there might be some filling in of the

    blanks when they notice low hanging fruits here or there as they do the

    review process.







    I see no real problem with extending the schedule if it is really needed though.







    3.  Costant switching between design paradigms is a problem.  This

    won't happen because these are *arguments* which are on the page, not

    just design details, although having a design is a very good argument. 

    Therefore adding " but we already have this existing system to build

    on, and as a result if we go for this steam design in the next stage it

    will cost a total of $x and Y person-hours or so to reach prototype II,

    whereas if we choose approach B then it would take $Z and Q person

    hours, for what is really a small benefit, which we just clearly can't

    afford." will prevent unecessary switching if it is strong enough.  







    Hopefully, in the next several months, the design process will proceed,

    and the figures mentioned will improve to the point where there are

    design options on the table which are reasonable well worked out and

    which improve upon the existing design while being well worth it to

    prototype, and depending on funds etc. available, the best would be

    chosen.







    There are 6 months until construction on prototype II begins, and this could be a valuable experiment.


    Just wanted to clarify that when I say dictator I am referring to the
    established benevolent-dictator-for life model that is proven in
    software, it is not a criticism at all, just the term used.


    Edit on jun 17: I tried to remove the spaces between lines but can't find how, sorry.

     
  • Omni, I have suspended my efforts on the nife project intentionally in
    order to work on these more pressing problems. There is a lot I would
    be doing right now but these problems would make spending my time through the current approach very inefficient.  I don't have any confidence the stuff I do, no matter how good it were, is going to make even the slightest difference.

    Come on, I'm not going to push this approach if people don''t think it's a good one, but we have to solve this one way or another.  Saying nothing isn't going to help.

    If you don't like this idea, then let's talk about your idea instead. 

    This is 2 and a half days now down the drain since I suggested this and people don't even want to *talk* about it. If we can't even do that, how are we ever going to make any progress here?

     One of the problems with communications over forums is that sometimes we can ignore things we don't want to hear a little too easily.  Sometimes those things are what we need to think about the most.  In real life I'm pretty sure we would have made some progress by now.  I'll start talking like I do in real life when people start listening like they do in real life (not we don't sometimes repeat things when people seem not to have heard us in real life, too).  Similar to what Dawg said, we need to think about the hard questions here.


    To meet the 50/2/2 goal, we need to produce about 75 prototypes a year,  more than 6 a month, and therefore more than 6 designs a month.  We aren't doing anywhere near that, and it's not just due to a lack of funding for prototyping.  Or publicity - the TED talk is more publicity to the most applicable crowd than anyone else in an effort like this could dream of. 

    If it were a lack of prototyping capacity we would have a backlog of designs piling up.  Unless we are planning on hiring people to do the design work too here?  If we are, that throws out some of the best parts of the open source approach, the many eyeballs and hands.





     
  • In open source giving it a try works better than opening a discussion about it... do something cool and get people excited about it. 

    Trying to open a massive discussion (you created a huge wall of text!) leads to TLDR (too long didn't read) which is, sadly, counterproductive.  A post on the forum is not, unfortunately, the most effective way of communicating your idea because of the complexity of it. Its not saying that your idea is bad at all - from what i've understood of it (with the proviso that I did not actually read all of it) it does seem like a pretty good idea.  

    So how can you be more effective?  Create the proposed wiki page, and a brief on how you think people would be interacting with it.  Also think about what brings people to and to modify their page or portion of page.  You might even create a short screencast video with you talking to illustrate what you're talking about.  Showing and speaking is more effective than a wall of prose. 

    What do you think of that, Gregor?
     
  • But David, the word count is less than 3000.  At 300 Wpm reading speed (average) plus skipping over parts that do not interest you it would take less than 10 minutes to read in detail.  It should take less than 2 minutes to skim.

    Look,  if people can't handle that.  When we are talking about a major change in the development model.  Then we have  a major problem here, no matter how you work it.   Just skim it, if it looks like a good idea, read it for cripes crap.  If it doesn't, say where you think it is wrong.

    <last line edited out by me, unnecessaryilly abrasive>
     
  • Also, if people value what other have to say so little, not only is that grossly disrespectful, but it raises questions about why you are reading the forum at all.

    Unfortunately I think people are regarding it as entertainment too much, and not as a serious communication tool.  The problems here are just popping up like daisies.  Well, those are opportunities too.  Let's stomp them down and get some progress here.

     
  • I can only speak for myself and I definitely will not be bantering or battling with you, but wanted to offer my honest feedback in the hopes that it helps. As a new member of the community with limited engagement thus far, your posts often come off as very negative and close-sighted. This makes people like me not prone to interact with you unless it is completely necessary. I understand how it can be annoying to see the world and people behaving in ways that you don't like or understand, but DavidIAm was giving you his tips on how to be more effective, and you just shoved it back in his face. Do you think he is going to be more likely to interact with you now or less? Sometimes listening is the best way to get people to start listening to you. Ranting with dire predications of, "this is never going to work unless" will only get your more of the same response. If your goal is to ostracize yourself because we are all incompetent, then keep doing what you are doing. 
     
  • I very much appreciate your input, laconic world.  I am not interested in any battling either, but these problems that exist still ought to be solved one way or another, don't you think?

      I am only looking for some progress here, that is all.  I am not into flaming or anything.  You have successfully identified a problem, thank you for it


    How would you suggest I say what I am saying instead?  Can you re-write the post as an example?  In the spirit of
    collaboration I suggest in a very friendly way, that if someone could
    re-write my post in a way that points out the same issues and so forth
    (roughly the same content) but is better, please please just take a moment to do so.  In this
    way might get some progress. . 




     
  • If it were me, I would take DavidIAm's suggestion to implement the idea on the wiki. You have most of the framework. On the wiki you can make the formatting more clear and provide your definitions for terms you use. I would add a system diagram or flow chart that helps bring others up to speed quickly. Then you can link to sections on here and ask for specific feedback.Another possibility is to put all this information into a specification document that get's signed off on by key people that are involved in the project. I agree with DavidIAm that a video would really help your cause. If you can't make it, reach out for someone who can. 

    This all implies understanding of what your trying to do and what's stopping you. I only have a vague notion from some of the posts I've read involving you. Like I said, I'm new and trying to get up to speed on many fronts of OSE at the same time, while keeping up with my working life. You feel there is a documentation problem and are proposing a new working system for prototype II of the solar concentrator, correct? Direct your comments and write emails to people working on that project. Understand that they may be doing other things and not be able to get back to you as fast as you'd like. If this doesn't work for you, then maybe you'll have to find other people with the same responsiveness-level and work on a parallel design. You might also come up with tasks that someone your trying to recruit to working on the project could help with. I'm not super interested in the solar concentrator, but if you reached out with specific tasks that I could contribute to, me or others might be happy to take some of the workload. An example would be: "I need some help documenting my proposal for the solar concentrator collaboration scheme, can someone please volunteer to work on a portion of the wiki with me this week? If so, send me a private message. Thanks"

    I would get rid of the complaints about wasting of your time. People have other responsibilities and levels of engagement with OSE. If you have more time and volunteer to spend it, do not get on others for not reacting at your pace. Unless you have set up an agreement about timing with specific people, it makes no sense to complain about wasted time. If you have problems with specific people, direct them accordingly. Many of your negative comments are vague and therefore taken negatively by anyone reading it. 

    Hope this helps.
     
  • How I would suggest saying it:

    We need a system that enables effective collaboration, sharing, costing, and promotion of good ideas focused around design concepts.

    There will such non-inclusive parameters on every change such as:
    - materials acquisition cost
    - material fabrication tool acquisition cost
    - material fabrication time
    - material assembly time
    - material fabrication expendable supplies
    - material fabricator cost (getting the time of the guy/s who can do it to do it)
    - maintenance costs at each forseeable interval, for the lifetime of the structure
    - risk/cost factors regarding failure of components
    - operation costs (how much people time does it take to operate?)
    - scaling factors
    - recycling of materials after useful life expires

    Each of these factors is affected by every design change in some manner.  Although it would be ideal to have a system able to quantify how the costs are modified by each design change, we don't have such a software system.  I believe we can approximate this behavior on the wiki.  Each design category should have its own page within the project category, and independently, each factor under consideration should have a page with a complete explanation of how it is described and quantified.  

    ---

    If that sounds unattainable due to the tedium and time of propagating factor calculations across all live proposals for the design, I'd say you are observant and realistic.

    Hopefully, though, some approximation of such a quantification system could be stepped through on the wiki, with appropriate documentation of a manual process for doing so.

    And a collaboration idea and idea revision rating system is on my list of 'things critical to the future of humanity'.  Perhaps I'll get to work on it when I live in a community supported by OSE technology.  :)

     
  • @laconic_world

    gregor's suggestion was implemented on the wiki: http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Solar_Concentrator_Electric_Power_System_Product_Selection

    Anyone can now start collecting information and metrics for each design on the wiki.
    I would suggest also contacting the person who seems to have lead the project the longest, Marcin, and asking for him to explain what he knows about the pros and cons of each design and why the current designs were chosen. Then metrics can be gathered to ensure that the correct decisions are made.


     
  • @gregor

    In some ways I feel I am responding to a sidebar discussion that has finished itself, but I want to express a few thoughts, which I hope will have a positive general impact on the community.

    When we want people to grow, learn or change, we need to make it as easy as possible.  The less limiting factors there are in a situation, the more likely it is that they will succeed.  As quoted in your earlier post, "The page becomes to big to be reviewed, or the signal to noise ratio becomes too low, with good design gettign buried."  

    In my time as a professional educator, I have found that regardless of the quality of what I have to say, I needed to earn the right to interest and attention every time.

    The members of this forum community were accused of being rude and thoughtless for failing to respond to your post, we were accused of being selfish and rude for failing to devote 12 minutes of our time to skimming (quoted at 2 minutes), then reading (quoted at 10 minutes) your post.  We would have required significantly more to decode, process and respond to the postings.  

    If we consider the situation mathematically with regard to the impact on the community, then the following results:
    For the purpose of the discussion, let us define a productive conversation as one with at least 1 main post, 20 full reads and 3 responses.

    If I write up a large post in 5 minutes and it takes 20 minutes for each forum member to read and process and an additional 5 to construct a response to it, then this conversation, once it has reached the productive state will have used 7 hours of community time.


    If I write up a large post in 5 minutes and then spend 25 minutes refining it and it takes 3 minutes for a forum member to read and 5 more to respond, then the productive version of this conversation will have used only 1 hour 45 minutes of community time.

    In the second example, you exert 6 times more energy than the first, but the community "gains" 5 hours 15 minutes through that exertion.
     
  • Okay, thank you for following up laconic and David, I will implement the suggestions to go ahead as a sort of demonstration and illustration of the idea in the coming week or two if I get time.

    To clarify, of course I understand that ratification of such an idea and posting of the existing documentation would take it's place in the queu, but I was not at the stage where I am lobbying directly for it to be done, or I would indeed have emailed people directly.   I was and am putting it out so we can think out the details to fix problems that might be easier to fix before rather than after it is implemented, or as a starter to a discussion about other options to resolve the same issues, because it is a major shift in the process and I have no delusions that is "the final answer" to these big issues.    In implementing it on the wiki I will be explaining it as suggested I do, not pushing for it as the final answer.

    Secondly, just thinking aloud as to how communication over a forum goes,  I think it might be a good idea to (sometimes), appreciating that with any body of text, especially a long one when the reader may not be aware of the context in which it is written, there is more than one possible meaning to the words, to assume that what is meant by the writer is the more reasonable and productive or intelligent one.   By this approach, if the wrong interpretation is assumed at least you end up talking about a better more useful idea not a worse one, which is a nice bonus.  It would tend to probably improve the usefulness and progress and ideas subsequently generated by the conversation, as compared with starting from a more base idea.  For example, when I complained about not being able to have confidence that my times was used well, I mean it as a general problem which I think applies to other contributors too and therefore is worth something to solve to improve progress overall rather than just being about me.  And with regards to the 2 and half days thing, I mean getting started on solving the problem was pushed back by that long, which is not good for the overall effort, not that I was annoyed at the waste of my own time during that period.  Nor was I asking people who are very pressingly occupied with other things of greater important to the effort to answer the post, only those who find they do have the time for such things, which from activity on the forum and wiki there do seem to be some of.

    No one said changing the world was going to be all peaches and cream - we gotta stick together and stick it out and go through rather than shy away from the inevitable harder parts, like coming up with a better collaborative development approach for hardware.
     
  • Also, ARG, fear not, this sort of discussion has only just begun as developing a new and better development model for hardware will certainly take a while.
     
  • I am working on a parabolic dish on equatorial mount. It is a slow multi year process but it has been worth it.
      I chose to go with dish because I read that the theoretical maximum collection is as follows "The theoretical annual efficiency of the three principal concentrating
    collectors utilized in the United States is 80 percent
    for the dish, 60 percent for the central receiver, and 43 percent
    for the parabolic trough on an annual basis". (This was taken from "understanding solar concentrators" ) which is online.  80% as opposed to 43% means that parabolic dish has a lot more potential that trough. Sure troughs are easier but if you give away nearly half your potential to begin with, is "easier" really worth it?   My latest effort has about 1.6 sq meters collecting capacity.  I did not try to do anything perfect. It was more about spreading the ideas than anything else. Latest video about it is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVv6eQIcj5I  and it is really only the three quarter way  point in the development.


     

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